Money Peak: Technology Sector Report

February 25 – March 4, 2026

🔍 Market Overview

The technology sector concluded the reporting week with a rise of +0.93% – a solid, albeit nuanced outcome, which does not reflect the deep divide within the sector. While AI infrastructure stocks such as NVIDIA Corporation and semiconductor equipment suppliers continued to enjoy tailwinds, software companies and some mega-caps came under pressure – the software sector, as measured by leading indices, is down about 24% year-to-date.

The central event of the week was NVIDIA’s quarterly report (released on February 25), which confirmed robust hyperscaler investments and supported the thesis that the AI infrastructure investment cycle has not yet peaked. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions – particularly the escalated conflict in the Middle East – weighed on sentiment: several technology companies, including NVIDIA and Amazon, temporarily closed their offices in Dubai, highlighting the operational vulnerability of globally positioned tech companies.

Macroeconomically, the picture remains tense: the Dow Jones lost around 850 points at times, oil prices rose due to the conflict, and capital flowed defensively into sectors such as real estate (+2.66%) and utilities (+2.31%). The technology sector performed well in comparison, but the valuation premiums for AI infrastructure stocks are now running ahead of price development – a signal that investors should take seriously.

💡 Key Trends and Sector Dynamics

Artificial Intelligence as an Investment Driver – but with Selectivity

The AI investment cycle continues to drive massive capital allocations among the major cloud providers. Microsoft Corporation and Alphabet Inc. are reportedly planning billion-dollar investments in their respective AI infrastructures. Similarly, Amazon.com, Inc. has sealed a strategic partnership with OpenAI, involving investments of up to 50 billion USD and committing to an AWS workload of 138 billion USD over eight years – a signal of the long-term nature of these investment cycles. Amazon's 8 billion dollar stake in Anthropic has now grown in value to approximately 13.8 billion dollars, while Anthropic’s Claude app secured the top spot in the Apple App Store.

NVIDIA reported another strong period: the Blackwell and Rubin architectures are solidifying dominance in the AI compute market. With 79 out of 81 analysts rating the company a “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” sentiment remains markedly positive for the chip giant.

Apple: Product Offensive with Price Increases

Apple Inc. launched a broad product offensive this week – with new MacBook Air and MacBook Pro models (featuring M5 chips), an updated Studio Display, and the iPhone 17e priced at 599 USD. Noteworthy are the price hikes: the MacBook Air models cost 100 USD more than their predecessors, and the 16-inch MacBook Pro M5 Max starts at 3,899 USD. Apple indirectly cited the ongoing global memory chip shortage as a reason. The fundamental strength remains intact – earnings per share in the first fiscal quarter rose by 19% year-over-year.

Software Under Pressure – A Structural Problem

The most pronounced weakness in the sector remains the software industry. A decline of around 24% since the beginning of the year signals that corporate customers continue to hesitate in widely adopting AI-enabled applications – instead prioritizing investments in computing capacity and data infrastructure. This lag of the software layer compared to the infrastructure layer is structural and is unlikely to be bridged in the short term.

📊 Overview of Key Metrics: Large Tech Stocks in Comparison

All data: TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) as of March 4, 2026. NVIDIA margin and ROE data are not fully reportable from available sources; individual columns adjusted accordingly.

A glance at the table shows how differently these companies are valued: Microsoft impresses with the highest net margin (39%) and a moderate P/E ratio of 25x compared to mega-caps. Amazon trades despite the lowest P/S ratio significantly below its yearly highs – roughly 18% below – offering a different entry dynamic than Apple or Alphabet.

⚠️ Risks and Challenges

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East presents the most immediate operational risk. Tech companies with a presence in the region face site closures and employee evacuations. Furthermore, the conflict fuels oil price increases, exerting broad inflationary pressure and possibly putting central banks' interest rate policies under renewed strain.

Additionally, there is the issue of valuation concentration: a significant portion of market performance is carried by a few mega-cap stocks. If NVIDIA were excluded from calculations, the US overall market would be near its fair valuation – an indication of how strongly the sector depends on individual titles. This concentration increases the potential for setbacks in the event of a loss of confidence in the AI investment cycle.

Finally, competition within the AI ecosystem is growing: OpenAI is reportedly developing its own code repository service as an alternative to Microsoft’s GitHub – an example of how former partners can become competitors.

🎯 Actionable Insights for Investors

1. AI Infrastructure Trumps AI Applications
The investment cycle currently rewards the infrastructure layer – semiconductors, data center technology, storage components – far more than the application layer. Investors looking to capitalize on the AI theme should consider this structural priority in their positioning.

2. Observe Software Selectively and Focused
The decline in the software segment of about 24% since the beginning of the year has pushed valuations to levels that may become attractive for high-quality companies with a clear AI implementation strategy. An undifferentiated sector perspective falls short here – the key is the quality of the respective business model.

3. Do Not Underestimate Geopolitical Risk in Portfolio
The temporary office closures of tech corporations in the Middle East demonstrate that geopolitical escalations can generate operational and reputational risks that are difficult to quantify in advance. A regional diversification of portfolio positions can serve as a buffer here.

4. Actively Manage Valuation Concentration
The strong dependence of sector performance on a few titles makes regular reviews of individual weightings worthwhile. Smaller and medium-sized tech companies directly related to AI infrastructure may offer a broader risk-opportunity profile.

5. Apple’s Pricing Power as Quality Indicator
The ability to increase MacBook prices by 100 USD while simultaneously generating demand underscores the strength of the brand and customer loyalty. Investors should incorporate this pricing power as a structural quality factor in their evaluation – especially in an environment with ongoing supply chain tensions.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice according to the German Banking Act (KWG) or BaFin regulations. The companies and securities mentioned are illustrative examples and not personal recommendations. Investors should consider their individual risk tolerance, investment objectives, and financial situation and consult a licensed financial advisor if needed. All data are based on publicly available sources and market data at the time of creation.

— Money Peak Editorial Board, March 4, 2026