🔔 Money Peak 24h Report

Good evening, Money Peak users! The last 24 hours in the markets have been characterized by significant fluctuations and important economic policy developments. While US technology stocks received a boost from strong quarterly figures from Microsoft and Meta, Trump's tariff policies and surprisingly high inflation data weighed on overall sentiment.

⚡ Money Peak 24h Snapshot

• US trade policy creates uncertainty: Trump extends 25% tariffs on Mexican goods by 90 days [1]
• Inflation higher than expected: Fed's favorite indicator Core PCE rose by 0.3% – September rate cut in jeopardy [2]
• Tech stocks as stabilizers: Microsoft and Meta drive US indices upward with strong quarterly results [3]
• Trump attacks Fed Chair: Powell described as a "total loser" after unchanged interest rates [4]
• DAX under pressure: German benchmark index falls 0.84%, while gold rises 1.69%

💹 Current Market Drivers in Focus

US Trade Policy and Tariffs

The Trump administration's tariff policy remains a dominant theme. The extension of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods for another 90 days signals a hardening of the US trade position [1]. At the same time, the legality of Trump's far-reaching tariffs is under judicial review, increasing uncertainty for export-oriented German companies [5].

Monetary Policy and Inflation

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, prompting public criticism from President Trump, who called Fed Chair Powell a "total loser" [4]. The political interference in central bank independence could increase market volatility in the medium term.

Particularly concerning for investors: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator (Core PCE) rose by 0.3% in June – stronger than expected. This could jeopardize the anticipated September interest rate cut [2].

Technology and AI as Market Support

Despite macroeconomic concerns, technology and AI stocks remain pillars of the market. Experts like Julian Emanuel of Evercore recommend focusing on AI themes during increased volatility, as these are considered "safe havens" [6]. The strong quarterly results from Microsoft and Meta underscore this position.

📊 Market Data Overview

Major Indices

Top and Flop Stocks in the DAX

Top Performers:

Flop Performers:

Commodity Prices

Currencies and Bonds

🔍 Our Focus Topic: Market Overvaluation?

As the S&P 500 reaches new highs, more analysts are warning of a possible market overvaluation. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, recently emphasized: "The current market rally is being carried by a very narrow base, which historically represents a warning signal" [7].

Particularly striking is the discrepancy between the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks and the rest of the market. The valuations outside the tech giants appear increasingly questionable to many experts, especially given the weaker earnings growth in other sectors.

Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets warns: "When looking at valuation models, the market has shot well beyond its target" [8].

At the same time, this environment offers opportunities in previously neglected sectors. Analysts identify stocks with catch-up potential of up to 30% in sectors that have underperformed in 2025 so far [9].

💡 Money Peak Assessment: What the Last 24h Mean for You as an Investor

Immediate Action Required?

For most investors, there is no immediate need for action. The current market movements should be understood as warning signals that suggest a review of one's investment strategy.

However, those heavily invested in export-oriented German companies should closely monitor developments in US tariff policy. The judicial review of Trump's tariff policy could have significant implications for these stocks.

These Topics Should Be on Your Radar in the Coming Days/Weeks:

1. US Inflation Development: The unexpectedly high PCE value could dampen interest rate cut hopes. Further inflation data will show whether this is a trend or an outlier.

2. Legal Decisions on US Tariffs: The pending court ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policy could have significant implications for trade tensions.

3. Valuation Levels of US Markets: The growing discrepancy between tech giants and the rest of the market could lead to increased volatility.

4. European Banking Sector: The positive development at BBVA and Société Générale points to opportunities in the European banking sector, which could benefit from higher interest rate expectations.

📆 Outlook: These Events Are Important Today

09:55 CEST (DE): Unemployment Rate (Jul)

14:00 CEST (DE): Inflation Rate YoY (Jul)

14:30 CEST (US): Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)

14:30 CEST (US): Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/26)

References:

[1] Trump extends Mexico's 25% tariffs for 90 days as talks continue. cnbc.com

[2] Fed's preferred inflation gauge ticks up as tariffs lift prices — casting cloud on September rate cut. nypost.com

[3] Börsennews zu Microsoft und Meta. boerse.de

[4] Trump hits Powell as 'total loser' after Fed leaves rates unchanged. foxbusiness.com

[5] Trump's trade agenda is on the line as appeals court hears arguments in key tariffs case. cnbc.com

[6] Stay With AI Theme to Counter Volatility, Says Evercore's Emanuel. youtube.com

[7] This Makes No Sense. seekingalpha.com

[8] RBC Capital Markets' Calvasina: If you look at valuations modeling, market is way over its skiis. youtube.com

[9] 10 stocks favored to gain up to 30% in a sector that has missed this year's rally. marketwatch.com