Money Peak 24h Market Report

Good evening, Money Peak users! Markets displayed mixed sentiment today. While US labor market data remains the decisive factor for the upcoming Fed interest rate decision, legal uncertainties surrounding US tariffs and weakening technology stocks have created a cautious atmosphere in the markets.

⚡ Money Peak 24h Snapshot

• DAX under pressure: The German benchmark index fell 0.57%, dropping below the psychologically important 24,000-point mark
• US labor market data in focus: The Fed's September decision depends significantly on the upcoming employment report [1]
• Court ruling on Trump tariffs: A US appeals court has declared the majority of tariffs introduced by Trump illegal [2]
• Commodities gaining ground: Gold (+1.20%), silver (+2.57%), and copper (+2.85%) recorded significant gains
• Infineon biggest DAX loser: The semiconductor manufacturer fell 3.73%, leading the list of declining stocks in the DAX

💹 Current Market Drivers in Focus

US Labor Market as the Key Factor for the Fed

The US Federal Reserve's decision regarding a September interest rate cut heavily depends on the upcoming labor market report. However, experts increasingly doubt the reliability of this data, as figures have frequently been revised in the past and send contradictory signals [1]. Particularly concerning: cyclical sectors such as manufacturing, services, and retail are already cutting jobs – a classic recession signal [3].

Court Ruling on US Tariffs Creates Uncertainty

A US appeals court has ruled that the majority of tariffs introduced by former President Trump are not lawful. Although the tariffs remain in effect for now, uncertainty for businesses and markets has increased significantly. Trump has already announced his intention to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court [2]. This legal dispute could have substantial implications for bond markets [4].

September – Traditionally Weak Month for Markets

Historically, September is the weakest month for stock markets. However, experts believe that 2025 could be an exception, as positive momentum effects and sector rotations (e.g., banks outperforming, media stocks weak) might provide support [5].

📊 Market Data Overview

Major Indices

Top and Bottom Performers in the DAX

Top Performers:

Bottom Performers:

Commodity Prices

Currencies and Bonds

🔍 Our Focus Topic: Uncertain Data – Certain Decisions?

The current market situation is significantly influenced by uncertainty regarding the quality of US labor market data. The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: it must make an interest rate decision despite the underlying data appearing increasingly unreliable.

"The quality of labor market data has deteriorated considerably in recent months, complicating the Fed's decision-making process," warns Rebecca Patterson, an experienced investor [6].

This uncertainty is further amplified by legal disputes surrounding Trump's tariffs. While markets have shown remarkable resilience to these challenges so far, cracks are beginning to appear: the S&P 500 has ended its three-week winning streak due to inflation concerns [7].

💡 Money Peak Assessment: What the Last 24 Hours Mean for You as an Investor

Immediate Action Items:

• Review risk management: The technical weakness of the DAX (below the 12-day SMA, RSI at 42.72) suggests further downward pressure. Check your stop-loss limits, especially for cyclical stocks.
• Commodities as hedges: The strong performance of gold, silver, and copper offers an opportunity for portfolio diversification in uncertain times.

Important Themes for the Coming Days:

• US labor market data: This will be crucial for Fed interest rate policy and could trigger significant market movements.
• Legal developments on US tariffs: The Supreme Court's decision could have far-reaching consequences for international trade.
• September seasonality: Keep an eye on September's historical weakness, but remain open to potential positive surprises through sector rotations.

Despite current uncertainties, top analysts see long-term potential in selected tech stocks such as Palo Alto Networks and MongoDB [8]. Selective positioning in high-quality companies with stable business models could pay off even in volatile times.

References:

[1] Flawed Jobs Data Threatens Fed's September Rate Cut. seekingalpha.com

[2] Trump tariffs that are voided — and ones that are safe — from Friday's appeals court ruling. cnbc.com

[3] August Job Report Preview: Weak Report To Cement The September Fed Cut. seekingalpha.com

[4] How an Appeals Court's Ruling on Trump Tariffs Could Upend the Bond Market. barrons.com

[5] September Is the Worst Month for Stocks. This Year Might be Different. barrons.com

[6] We shouldn't ignore this: Longtime investor Rebecca Patterson warns Trump could damage Fed independence. cnbc.com

[7] S&P 500 Snapshot: Inflation Worries Snap 3-Week Win Streak. seekingalpha.com

[8] Top Wall Street analysts recommend these 3 stocks for long-term investors. cnbc.com